Model Trust

Model Accuracy

Brier scores and calibration from completed games with stored pre-game predictions.

Brier Score

Mean squared error of predictions

0.331

Needs Improvement

Lower is better. 0 is perfect; ~0.25 is coin-flip for a two-way market.

n = 7 games

Calibration

Predicted vs actual home win rate

Pred 50%Actual 33%

Pred 60%Actual 0%

Pred 70%Actual 0%

Picks vs Outcomes

Pred 61% ATL / 39% CARFav ATL

Pred 60% CHI / 40% MINFav CHI

Pred 52% TEN / 48% PHIFav TEN

Pred 54% NE / 46% PITFav NE

Pred 65% NYJ / 35% GBFav NYJ

Pred 63% BAL / 37% NOFav BAL

Pred 53% HOU / 47% CINFav HOU

Miss

Close 47%

Crunching the numbers…